Economy, Jobs Will Remain a Focus for Campaign 2012

Michigan is an apt spot for Republican presidential hopefuls to Wednesday night.

That topic is Priority One for area residents, and Michigan voters have a key election role next year, area politics specialists say.

"Michiganders want to hear a realistic plan for creating jobs, jump-starting the economy and aiding lower-income and middle-class workers," said political scientist Terri Towner of Rochester, an assistant professor at .

 U.S. government teacher  wants to hear the candidates' plans to tackle issues such as "the erosion of the manufacturing base in the Midwest, outsourcing jobs, and funding for public schools."

While Towner will be in the campus audience when eight Republicans spar from 8-10 p.m. Wednesday at the 1,400-seat O'Rena athletic arena, Allaire will be watching the candidates' ninth debate at home.

With a theme of "Your Money, Your Vote," the debate will be televised live on CNBC and streamed at CNBC.com. It's sponsored by the cable channel and the Michigan Republican Party.

Robert Schostak, chairman of the Michigan GOP, called the state "Ground Zero" for the effects of the country's downward economic spiral.

"People feel a sense of urgency about the economy," Schostak said. "They all know the direction of the country is wrong; the economy is floundering."

Michigan's historic role as a pivotal state in presidential campaigns could be stronger if no Republican is dominant early next year, suggests Steve Mitchell of West Boomfield, chairman of a national polling and consulting firm with his name.

"Michigan has moved its primary up to Feb. 28," he notes. "However, the key to the nomination is in the three earliest states–Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina."

Allaire also sees Michigan as a must-win for each party next fall, a familiar role.

"Despite losing one vote in the Electoral College, Michigan will truly be a 'battleground state' and in a close election, like 2012 appears to be, it could literally be the swing state," Allaire said. "I expect that both candidates will campaign hard in Michigan."

Replay of 2008 unlikely

George H.W. Bush, who won this state's electoral votes in 1988, was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Michigan. This time, the state is up for grabs, predicts Mitchell, a respected election analyst and media commentator.  

"The election will not be a repeat of Obama’s 16-percent win in 2008," he said. "Instead, it will be more like 2004 when John Kerry beat President George W. Bush by just 3.5 percent."

A September survey of 600 likely 2012 state voters by Mitchell Research & Communications showed them evenly divided on the president's job performance. Fifty percent disapproved, while 47 percent approved.

That same statewide polling showed Mitt Romney leading Rick Perry, his closest opponent then, by a margin of more than two to one.

"Romney is from Michigan," explains Mitchell, who has offices in East Lansing and West Bloomfield. "Romney won Michigan in the 2008 presidential primary. He has very strong support here."

Each of the two political specialists puts joblessness atop the list of pressing economic issues.

"With unemployment still high here," Mitchell said, "Michigan voters are going to be looking for the best candidate to turn around the economy and create jobs."

What scares voters

At the university, Professor Towner agrees. "Michigan’s unemployment rate still tops other states at 11 percent," she said after news last Friday of a slight dip in the national rate to 9 percent during October.

"Oakland County voters are also worried about soaring home foreclosures, failing small and medium-sized businesses," adds the assistant professor, who came to OU in 2007 after earning a doctorate from Purdue University in her home state of Indiana.

"Michiganders want to hear a realistic plan for creating jobs, jump-starting the economy and aiding lower-income and middle-class workers."

Dakota AP government teacher Pat O'Connor simply wants to hear the candidates "be more specific about how they'll be able to do anything other than what Obama has been able to do." 

O'Connor, who will be taping the debate to share with her classes, is making the 2012 campaign and its issues a central part of her students' education this year.

"We watched bits and pieces of the other Republican debates and as we get closer to Michigan's primary, I will want my kids to be able to vote or at least watch with understanding," she said. "They've been educated pretty well on the finer points of elections, campaigning, and the role that media plays in all of this. I believe they're ready to go."

At the college level, the 2012 campaign is making its mark as well.

Gary Russi, president of Oakland University, said several special classes on campus have been focusing on jobs and the economy and that he expects the candidates to use the debate to unveil the centerpieces of their economic plans.

"We were chosen because Michigan is at the epicenter for job loss. These topics — job loss, the economy — are things we've all lived through," Russi said.

The Michigan Republican Party invites questions "about jobs, housing, the economy, taxes or your money" via an online form or by tweeting @migop with the hashtag #CNBCdebate.